Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability in Iran; Historical Trend and Future Projections
Abstract
Introduction: Climate change susceptibility is linked to a number of socioeconomic variables or features, such as the economy, infrastructure, health, education, governance, women's status, demographics, and culture. The GDL Data Lab Vulnerability Index (GVI) was created to compare nations and regions along particular socioeconomic characteristics in order to evaluate the state of societies on these dimensions. The GVI is based on an additive formula that condenses the key elements of the seven main socioeconomic vulnerability dimensions into a single number. The aim of this study was to assess Iran's socio-economic vulnerability index using the GVI to climate change from 2000 to 2020 and to project it until 2100 along five socio-economic pathways (SSP1 to SSP5).
Methods: GVI data for Iran for the period 2000 to 2020, as well as future projections of this index under five different socio-economic development scenarios (SSP1 to SSP5) for the period 2020 to 2100, were extracted from the Global Data Lab (GDL) database and using GraphPad Prism software.
Results: The results of the study showed that the GVI index has declined from 54 to 38 over the past two decades, reflecting progress in education, health and infrastructure. Future projections also suggest that vulnerability will continue to decline, with the SSP5 scenario showing the largest decline from 37.2 to 18.7 and the scenario showing the smallest decline from 40.5 to 36.8, reflecting a wide range of socio-economic outcomes.
Conclusion: The findings highlight the need for policies that support equitable and sustainable growth, particularly those that adhere to the SSP1 model.
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| Issue | Vol 1 No 1 (2026): Winter 2026 | |
| Section | Articles | |
| Keywords | ||
| Climate Change Vulnerability Socio-economic Vulnerability Global Vulnerability Index Climate Change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways | ||
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